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In reality, about a third do, down from the divorce surge of the s and s, though second and third marriages are much more vulnerable. Recent marriages are doing Marrked well thus far: Just 15 percent of the Americans who tied the knot since have decided to get it undone within the first eight years of marriage. The predictors of divorce, however, remain mysterious.

But in a nesd study published in the American Sociological ReviewHarvard sociologist Alexandra Achen Killewald has found that the things that increase the probability of divorce — as they relate to work, at least — have changed over the past couple decades.

For contemporary couples, the biggest determinant is whether the husband is working full-time.

The data set is enviably large. She tracked 6, married couples between and1, of whom divorced or permanently separated during that time.

In the early cohort, wives neeed did 50 percent of the housework had a 1. If he was employed full-time, there was a 2. The results contradict a couple of the leading explanations for why people divorce and why so many people broke up in the 70s and 80s in particular.

There are a couple limitations to the study, Killewald says. Lots husbanv couples have husbands go through periods of unemployment and are perfectly fine, and there are, of course, tons of factors out there that lead to divorce beyond money. But learning about the correlates of divorce sheds a light on what brings people together.

The study suggests that when partners fulfill the roles that are expected of them, marriages are more stable. Already a subscriber?

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